Research before risk

Trade the rule. Not the story.

Second Order turns exact event-contract language, point-in-time evidence, and conservative replay into decisions a human can actually defend. The default answer is often: stand aside.

Paper by default
As-of honest
Bounded loss

Decision instrument // research loop Illustrative

Default verdict STALK Stand aside without a rooted edge.

Research posture // 00 The system is allowed to say no.

Research advances only when the edge survives exact rules, time, costs, and falsification.

01Contract
Exact settlement trigger
02Evidence
Observable as of time
03Forks
Every payoff world
04Authority
Human review required

Expected valueRange, not point

Execution modePaper first

Agent authorityPropose only

A short chain of custody from fact to decision.

Every conclusion stays attached to the rule, time, evidence, model, and person that made it authoritative.

01 // DEFINE

The exchange is the contract.

Start with exact settlement wording, source, fees, timing, and version.

02 // CONSTRAIN

Know only what was knowable.

Evidence carries its observation time, retrieval path, and immutable identity.

03 // FALSIFY

Make every future settle.

MECE payoff forks expose the worlds where a compelling story still loses.

04 // AUTHORIZE

Agents propose. Humans decide.

Conservative replay and written review precede any bounded paper candidate.